Tuesday, January 01, 2008

$SPX Analysis for 01.01.2008

S & P 500 INDEX - $SPX

Monthly chart shows higher high was made in 2007, but was unable to hold it, and the index has now retreated back down below the prior high made in 2000. While the index ended 2007 marginally higher than the year before, the high was made with divergence in the cci momentum indicator. December's trading activity resulted in a doji/spinning top candle pattern, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears. An uptrend line drawn from the 2003 low currently remains intact. However, December's activity resulted in the index closing below the 8ema. IF the uptrend line is broken, THEN look for a much deeper retracement of the last leg up from the 2002 low.

Weekly chart shows a head and shoulder reversal pattern possibly in play. The last 2 weeks in December showed net selling. Index is currently below its weekly 8ema, 34ema and 50sma. No evidence of buying activity from the bulls as of yet.

Daily chart shows index to be below all key moving averages, and remains stuck in a large trading range since August 2007. Look for continued weakness this week and for a test of November low, and then the August low.

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