EBAY Update for 08.02.2008

eBAY INC. - EBAY

Monthly chart shows continued weakness with no buy signal/pattern evident on this timeframe.

Weekly chart shows price is currently below all key moving averages on this timeframe. While there is a test of the current support, the price action looks decidely less than enthusiastic. Technically, there is a higher low in place, but it is a weak buy signal/pattern.

Daily chart shows price to be below all key moving averages. The price action from the past two weeks seem to be tracing out a bear flag, which signals consolidation. The bulls have had almost two weeks to take the price higher, but have been unable to. This does not bode well for anyone who is long off the double bottom.

EBAY Update for 07.19.2008

eBAY INC. - EBAY

Monthly chart shows continued weakness and selling. Price is below all key moving averages on this timeframe, and is in danger of breaking the key LIS of $22.83. No buy signal/pattern evident on this timeframe.

Weekly chart shows the increased selling pressure this past week. Price closed below the small key LIS of $25.10.

Daily chart shows a kicker signal candle pattern in place, as unhappy investors/traders gapped down the open on Thursday's trading session, in their haste to unload their positions. Price remains well below the 8ema on this timeframe at this time. No buy signal/pattern evident on this timeframe.

EBAY Analysis for 07.06.2008

eBay INC. - EBAY

This is currently a holding in Bill Miller's portfolio. According to the website, his average price paid for his position is about $28.10, and so far, he is down about 5%. The following is my technical analysis of the charts.
Piper Jaffray upgraded Ebay from "market perform" to "outperform" on November 9, 2007. The analyst had a 12 month price target of $43.


Monthly chart shows eBay to be making lower lows and lower highs since the high was put in on December 2004. Thus far, price is below all key moving averages on this timeframe. The bears have managed to take back about 80% of the gains made since August 2006. While there may have been a buy signal off the March 2008 low, the bulls have been unable to maintain the upside momentum, and quickly lost ground back to the bears, who have all but taken back any gains since the March 2008 low was made. This is looking more and more like consolidation before the next leg down.

Weekly chart shows stock to be trading dangerously close to its March 2008 low, and just below that is the August 2006 low. Price is below all key moving averages on this timeframe. Look for continued weakness, and for increasing selling momentum to take price down below $23.00.

Daily chart shows price to be below all key moving averages on this timeframe, as well as below the down trendline in place. This is looking more and more like consolidation before the next leg down.

My thoughts on Georges Yared Stock Picks for 03.02.2008

EDITED TO ADD: CROX IS A SELL ..... see analysis below!!

From Georges Yared email entitled "5 Ways to Stagflation Proof Your Portfolio" -

"Fellow Investor,
The economy’s headed south, everyone agrees. But did you know, your stocks don’t have to go with it?
Fact is, you can make money on the way down, and you can make money on the way back up.
You see, for some companies—and their stake-holders—this is the moment of truth, the breakout point.
The time when innovation and growth pay off.
Let me show you how to protect your portfolio and LOVE the slowdown.
STEP #1Sidestepping Danger: The 75% Rule
The most vulnerable companies right now derive over 75% of their revenues domestically.
The safest at least 45%-50% of their revenues abroad.
Let’s take two excellent companies, Chipotle and Crocs. Chipotle’s overseas sales are nonexistent. It is entirely dependent on the U.S. consumer. It’s a great growth stock, but I don’t expect ANY growth here this year.
Chipotle’s a buy at half today’s price.
Crocs on the other hand sells its products in 13,000 outlets in the U.S.—but 19,000 in 90 other countries.
Crocs is a superb buy here—and its P/E of 10 makes it practically irresistible!
Amazon, Google and eBay are also diversified enough to keep growing through a recession, even a period of stagflation.
Cisco’s growth is only 10% tied to the U.S. Good news.
Caterpillar has guided higher—even though it expects U.S. sales to decline.
Shaw Group—we’ve talked about this nuclear plant management company’s big presence in China before—Shaw Group’s growth is mostly non-U.S.—and locked in for the next 5 years.
In Times Like THIS…
Lucky? A little. But there’s a very precise science to the art of finding GameChangers.
I was one of the first analysts to identify Google, Harley, Starbucks, Broadvision, Medtronic and Ciena. The list is longer than this, but you get the idea: big, big winners—1,000% to 7,000% profits—in companies that changed the game and grabbed huge, sustainable competitive advantages.
I call them GameChangers and…
…You Need Stocks Like THAT!
For more than 30 years, I’ve lived on the cutting edge of business innovation. Now I’m going to show you how to spot Wall Street’s next monster winners. "

Within the admail blurb, he makes the following statement: "Crocs is a superb buy here -- and its P/E of 10 makes it practically irresistible!" Let's see what the charts say. Is CROX really irresistible at this price? Or can it go lower, and lower still?

CROCS INC. - CROX

Monthly chart shows that since its IPO, it has lost 79% of its value in just 4 short months. February's trading activity was dominated by increasing selling pressure with no end in sight.

Weekly chart shows continued weakness, with no buy pattern evident on this timeframe.

Daily chart shows increasing selling pressure evident as bears gapped down the stop twice in the month of February, and the bulls did not have the strength to even make any attempts to try and close them. While Georges Yared thinks that a current P/E ratio of 10 is "irresistible", I say the charts are saying either be flat, or short on CROX. Beware of the value trap.

"Amazon, Google and eBay are also diversified enough to keep growing through a recession, even a period of stagflation."

Is Georges Yared right? Can they keep growing through a recession, even a period of stagflation? And is this a good time to buy these 3 companies? The monthly charts of each of these 3 companies say that the selling has NOT stopped, and that there is more downside to come.

AMAZON.COM INC. - AMZN

Monthly chart shows increasing selling pressure. We have a 3 wave abc pattern into .886 fib retracement level. Downside target for this particular pattern is at the .786 fib target of $26.38 area.

GOOGLE INC. - GOOG

Monthly chart shows that the market is retracing the whole move up from its IPO debut price. The minimum downside target I am looking for is at the .618 fib retracement level of $347.18 area.

eBAY INC. - EBAY

Monthly chart shows continued weakness. Pattern suggests increased weakness, with lower low as downside target.

EBAY Update for 02.09.2008

EBAY - EBAY

Monthly chart shows continued weakness. No buy signal/pattern evident on this tiemframe. So much for the Piper Jaffray upgrade on this stock. For those investors who bought this stock based on the analyst's rating change would be under water today.

Weekly chart shows early buyers stepping back into the stock. There is an abc 3 wave pattern into the .786 fib level, for a possible bounce. Price action thus far looks corrective, and stock could be stuck in a large consolidation range. On a short term basis, there is a pattern in place that warns of possible retracement of the last leg down.

Daily chart shows early buyers showing up on Thursday and Friday of last week. Watch this coming week's trading activity to show increasing strength for a short term rally, and a retracement of the last leg down.

EBAY Analysis for 11.10.2007

EBAY - EBAY

Piper Jaffray upgraded Ebay from "market perform" to "outperform" on November 9, 2007. The analyst has a 12 month price target of $43. Monthly chart shows price to be stuck in a corrective wave. Based on pattern currently present, it is more likely to see price closer to $23 before $43.

Weekly chart better shows the corrective pattern into the $40.79 area high. No buy signal evident yet.

Daily chart shows potential 5 waves down into current support at the $32 range. Early buyers stepped back into the stock, gapping up the price at the open in their haste to get into the stock. Look for possible retracement of the last leg down. Look for sell signal after the retracement.

EBAY Analysis for 06.16.2007

Monthly chart shows support off the .618 fib level, with an AB=CD pattern into the .618 support.

Weekly chart shows current support to be at the .382 fib level.

Bulls showed up at the .382 fib level, creating a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating investor sentiment has changed. After a small pullback, buyers gapped up the stock price at the open 2 days in a row. Thursday's price action created a doji, so look to see how traders open the stock the following day -- buyers gapped up the open, indicating buying strength. Look for continued strength, with an upside tgt of the .618 fib at $33.50 and higher.