Friday, February 15, 2008

Consumer Discretionary Analysis for 02.15.2008


Monthly chart shows 5 waves up into July 2007 high of $40.70. This index made a high before the stock indices, which made their highs a few months later. The index has retraced to the .618 fib level, where early bulls started buying. No confirmed buy signal/pattern evident on this timegframe. The 32.00 level is a key LIS to watch for support/resistance.

Weekly chart shows current resistance is right at the .382 fib retracement level of the last move down. So far, we have 3 wave pattern down into the .618 fib level. Will the index be stuck in a consolidation/trading range for wave 4? Look for a confirmed buy signal/pattern to go long. IF one does not appear, and the index remains stuck in a consolidation range, THEN look for next leg down.

Daily chart shows 5 waves up into the .382 fib . Next week's trading activity should give better direction that the market want to go.

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