Saturday, July 19, 2008

AAPL Analysis for 07.19.2008


Georges Yared sent out an admail with the tagline - "Buy every share of Apple you can get now! Applie Pie in July from $175 to $300 in a heartbeat "are you ready". Below is my own analysis of AAPL, to see whether NOW is a good time to buy or not, and whether we can get from $175 to $300 in a "heartbeat" or not.

Currently, there is no buy signal/pattern for me to enter AAPL at this time. Why buy "now" when I can buy it later at a much better price?

Monthly chart shows a possible double top on this timeframe. At the very least, we currently have a lower high being made in May 2008, where bulls quickly took profits as price approached its all time high of $202.96. June 2008 saw increasing profit-taking and selling, and the bears all but wiped out any gains made during the month of May 2008 and parts of April 2008. Technically there is a sell pattern/signal off this timeframe, and no buy signal/pattern as of yet.

Weekly chart better shows the sell signal/pattern in place. The lower high was made right at the .886 fib resistance level. Despite the launch of the new iphone, the stock price showed weakness this week. Price is making lower lows and lower highs on this timeframe. Sell pattern/signal remains in effect for now.

Daily chart shows increasing selling pressure, as the bears gapped down the open on Friday's trading session in their haste to exit their positions. No buy signal/pattern on this timeframe. Market looks to be retracing the last move up off the February 2008 low. First downside target is the $144-45 area, and the second downside target is the $131-132 area. Apple is due to report earnings on Monday, so be prepared for a bumpy/wild ride.

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