EBAY Analysis for 07.06.2008

eBay INC. - EBAY

This is currently a holding in Bill Miller's portfolio. According to the website, his average price paid for his position is about $28.10, and so far, he is down about 5%. The following is my technical analysis of the charts.
Piper Jaffray upgraded Ebay from "market perform" to "outperform" on November 9, 2007. The analyst had a 12 month price target of $43.


Monthly chart shows eBay to be making lower lows and lower highs since the high was put in on December 2004. Thus far, price is below all key moving averages on this timeframe. The bears have managed to take back about 80% of the gains made since August 2006. While there may have been a buy signal off the March 2008 low, the bulls have been unable to maintain the upside momentum, and quickly lost ground back to the bears, who have all but taken back any gains since the March 2008 low was made. This is looking more and more like consolidation before the next leg down.

Weekly chart shows stock to be trading dangerously close to its March 2008 low, and just below that is the August 2006 low. Price is below all key moving averages on this timeframe. Look for continued weakness, and for increasing selling momentum to take price down below $23.00.

Daily chart shows price to be below all key moving averages on this timeframe, as well as below the down trendline in place. This is looking more and more like consolidation before the next leg down.